People outside a restaurant without masks or social distancing on July 17, 2020, in Gotland, Sweden.
Martin von Krogh/Getty Images
Several authorities, including the World Health Organization, have condemned herd immunity as a strategy. “It can lead to a very brutal arithmetic that does not put people and life and suffering at the center of that equation,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Program, said in May.
Regardless of whether herd immunity is a goal or a side effect of the Swedish strategy, how has it worked out? Not so well, according to the agency’s own test results. The proportion of Swedes carrying antibodies is estimated to be less than 10%, thus nowhere near herd immunity. Yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 564 deaths per million inhabitants compared with 444, as of July 27.
Sweden also has a death toll nearly five times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined — more than twice per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same.
Learn from Sweden’s mistakes
It is possible that the health agency actually believed that the Swedish approach was the most appropriate and sustainable one, and that the other countries, many of which went into lockdown, would do worse. Perhaps this, and not herd immunity, is the main reason the authorities are desperately clinging to their strategy. Or perhaps an unwillingness to admit early mistakes and take responsibility for thousands of unnecessary deaths plays into this resistance to change. Nevertheless, the result at this stage is unequivocal.
We do believe that Sweden can be used as a model, but not in the way it was thought of initially. It can instead serve as a control group and answer the question of how efficient the voluntary distancing and loose measures in Sweden are compared with lockdowns, aggressive testing, tracing and the use of masks.
In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief and suffering. On top of that, there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.
In the end, this too shall pass and life will eventually return to normal. New medical treatments will come and improve the prognosis. Hopefully, there will be a vaccine. Stick it out until then. And don’t do it the Swedish way.
Sigurd Bergmann, Ph.D., emeritus professor, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Dr. Leif Bjermer, Ph.D., professor, Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, Lund University
Barbara Caracciolo, Ph.D., in epidemiology
Marcus Carlsson, Ph.D., associate professor of mathematics, Lund University
Dr. Lena Einhorn, Ph.D., in virology
Dr. Stefan Einhorn, Ph.D., professor of molecular oncology, Karolinska Institutet
Andrew Ewing, Ph.D., professor of chemistry and molecular biology, University of Gothenburg
Dr. Manuel Felices, Ph.D., head of endocrine surgery, NÄL Hospital
Dr. Jonas Frisén, Ph.D., professor of stem cell research, Karolinska Institutet
Marie Gorwa, Ph.D., professor of microbiology, Lund University
Dr. Åke Gustafsson, Ph.D., clinical microbiology, Uppsala University Hospital
Dr. Olle Isacsson, Ph.D., professor of endocrinology, University of Gothenburg
Dr. Claudia Hanson, Ph.D., associate professor, global public health, Karolinska Institutet
Dr. Stefan Hanson, Ph.D., international health, Karolinska Institutet.
Dr. Jan Lötvall, Ph.D., professor of clinical allergy, University of Gothenburg
Dr. Bo Lundbäck, Ph.D., professor of epidemiology of respiratory diseases, University of Gothenburg
Åke Lundkvist, Ph.D., professor of virology, Uppsala University
Dr. Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, Ph.D., professor of microbial pathogenesis, Karolinska Institutet
Finn Nilson, Ph.D., associate professor of risk management, Karlstad University
Andreas Nilsson, Ph.D., professor of psychology, University of Gothenburg
Dr. Björn Olsen, Ph.D., professor of infectious diseases, Uppsala University
Jens Stilhoff Sörensen, Ph.D., associate professor, School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg
Jakob Svensson, Ph.D., scientific data analysis, Max Planck Institute, Greifswald
Dr. Anders Vahlne, Ph.D., professor of clinical virology, Karolinska Institutet
Dr. Anders Wahlin, Ph.D., professor emeritus of hematology, University of Umeå
Published 2:13 PM EDT Jul 27, 2020
Reprinted for educational purposes and social benefit, not for profit.