What would it take to produce enough coronavirus vaccine for the world in one year?
In this report, we provide one path forward. Using computational process modelling, we show how the global community could set up regional hubs capable of producing eight billion mRNA vaccine doses by May 2022. This would be enough to cover 80% percent of the population—what some experts believe is necessary for achieving herd immunity—in low- and middle-income countries. Critically, given the adaptability of mRNA technology, it also would set up the infrastructure required to quickly address variants and future public health threats. This entire analysis is presented for the National Institutes of Health-Moderna Covid-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273), the BioNTech-Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine (BNT162b2), and the CureVac vaccine (CVnCoV).
In the case of the NIH-Moderna vaccine, for example, we estimate that producing eight billion doses in one year would cost $23 billion. 842.1 kg of mRNA would be needed. This would require 4,620 employees working at 55 production lines, which could be set up in 14 facilities. The capital cost for retrofitting facilities would be $3.2 billion, while the operating cost for the drug substance production campaign would be $17.5 billion. Fill and finish would cost $2 billion.
The dawn of mRNA vaccines: The COVID-19 case – J Control Release
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