COVID-19 R0 is now well beyond control in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, and soon the rest of South America and Africa- 3.8 billion people, not including SE Asia. Unless something unexpected happens (like a cheap and approved treatment cocktail, or a benign mutation) it appears that SARS-CoV-2 will infect most of the developing world in the next 12 months with up to 17 million deaths.
With some of the common assumptions (yellow) even a 10% reduced CFR from a common drug cocktail (Ivermectin + ?) could save about 3.5 million lives.
- medRxiv | ICON (Ivermectin in COvid Nineteen) study: Use of Ivermectin is Associated with Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID19