US Reported COVID-19 deaths:    574,043

US Estimated COVID-19 deaths:  905,289

In the IHME estimation of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to date, we have used officially reported COVID-19 deaths for nearly all locations. As of today, we are switching to a new approach that relies on the estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19. There are several reasons that have led us to adopt this new approach. These reasons include the fact that testing capacity varies markedly across countries and within countries over time, which means that the reported COVID-19 deaths as a proportion of all deaths due to COVID-19 also vary markedly across countries and within countries over time. In addition, in many high-income countries, deaths from COVID-19 in older individuals, especially in long-term care facilities, went unrecorded in the first few months of the pandemic. In other countries, such as Ecuador, Peru, and the Russian Federation, the discrepancy between reported deaths and analyses of death rates compared to expected death rates, sometimes referred to as “excess mortality,” suggests that the total COVID-19 death rate is many multiples larger than official reports. Estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is important both for modeling the transmission dynamics of the disease to make better forecasts, and also for understanding the drivers of larger and smaller epidemics across different countries.

Source: IHME

Reprinted for educational purposes and social benefit, not for profit. 

Learn more:

  • Fauci: ‘No doubt’ US has undercounted COVID-19 deaths – The Hill
  • Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Fauci responded to host Chuck Todd, who questioned him about a study from the University of Washington indicating that COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. could be as high as 900,000. “You know, the model says that it’s a significant amount, as you mentioned correctly, 900,000. That’s a bit more than I would have thought the undercounting was, but, you know, sometimes the models are right on line, sometimes they’re a bit off,” Fauci said in response to a question about whether he believed the true death toll was that high. “But I think there’s no doubt, Chuck, that we are and have been undercounting. What that tells us is something that we’ve known. You know, we’re living through a historic pandemic, the likes of which we haven’t seen in over a hundred years,” he continued.